Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin will be celebrating Trump’s defeat of Hillary Clinton, but it’s not such good news for Mexico, Iran, Japan and Europe
Donald Trump triumphed, but so did Bashar al-Assad. Like other leaders around the world, Syria’s isolated president most likely spent the day after assessing the impact on him of the Republican’s unexpected victory. The dreadful Assad, soaked in blood after five years of civil war, is probably one of the big winners. But there are plenty of big losers, too.
Vladimir Putin heads up the first category. Trump has shown unusual partiality towards the Russian president, even though the two men have never met.
As a candidate, Trump suggested that, unlike Barack Obama, he could do business with Putin and might, for example, accept Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea.
Trump failed to condemn alleged Russian online hacking of the Democratic party and covert meddling in the election process.
He has rattled Nato allies in eastern Europe by stating that, as commander-in-chief, he would not necessarily rush to their military assistance if threatened by Russia.
In Syria and Iraq, Trump says his top priority is defeating Isis, not toppling the regime in Damascus – hence Assad’s big sigh of relief. He has declined to condemn Russia’s leading role in the merciless bombardment of eastern Aleppo and its actions on other Syrian battlefronts, which the UN says may constitute war crimes. It is widely believed Russia is gearing up for a final battle to take Aleppofor its ally, Assad, while the American transition is under way.
Perversely, despite his focus on Isis, little or nothing has been heard from Trump about Moscow’s targeting of Syrian opposition factions rather than the jihadis.
Like the people of Syria, the citizens of Afghanistan are losers, too. For them Trump represents a new twist in an old nightmare. He sees continued US military involvement there as contrary to American interests and could simply pull out, leaving the country to the Taliban and al-Qaida.
Xi Jinping, China’s president, is probably feeling quite good. Xi is a strong, authoritarian, quasi-dictatorial figure – the sort of leader, like Putin, that Trump appears to admire.
One can imagine the two men hitting it off on a personal level, although Xi is the more subtle of the two. He will worry about Trump’s unpredictable temperament and his talk of trade tariffs on China.
Xi will relish Trump’s criticism of Obama’s so-called pivot to Asia, which he sees as a bid to contain China. If Trump pivots away from the region, that will suit Beijing just fine, especially if it means it can accelerate its illegal expansionism in the South China Sea and ratchet up the pressure on Taiwan.
A big Asian loser, on the face of it, is Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, who has bet the farm on closer military ties with the US. Trump says Japan and South Korea must do more to defend themselves, including possibly acquiring nuclear weapons to deter North Korea. His threats to nuke North Korea if provoked could, if realised, make losers of us all.
THE GUARDIAN
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