Much of the world was stunned on Wednesday by Donald J. Trump’s stunning upset over Hillary Clinton to become the 45th president of the United States. His triumph holds the potential for overturning international relations. Criticisms of trade and immigration were central to his candidacy; Mr. Trump has professed admiration for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and once called climate change a Chinese hoax; he has criticized the American-led wars in Iraq and Afghanistan; and he has demanded that the nation’s allies foot more of the bill for their defense. (Follow our Politics briefing for the latest from the election.) “While we will always put America’s interests first, we will deal fairly with everyone,” Mr. Trump said in his victory speech.
In Japan, Anxiety From an Ally
As recently as late last week, government officials told Japanese journalists that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe would visit Washington to meet with Hillary Clinton in February.
On the campaign trail, Mr. Trump unnerved Japanese leaders as he frequently excoriated American allies and singled out Japan. He claimed that Tokyo was not paying its fair share to support United States military bases, calling into question the American commitment to defend Japan in case of attack.
Analysts in Japan said that even if Mrs. Clinton was not necessarily popular, she was predictable, a valued trait at a time when Asia is roiled by tensions with North Korea and territorial disputes between China and Japan. “Mr. Trump is a loose cannon and nobody really knows what to expect from him,” said Jeffrey Kingston, the director of Asian Studies at Temple University in Tokyo. “And that is always unsettling in a region that is marked by a number of tensions.”
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The most immediate beneficiary of a Trump presidency, according to Mr. Kingston, would be China.
Although worried by Mr. Trump’s complete lack of foreign policy experience, analysts said his campaign rhetoric would inevitably be tempered by experience in the Oval Office, as well as by the advice of experts. It would not be so easy, for example, to withdraw completely from security alliances.
“We have to wait to see whether he will get good briefings or whether he is flexible enough to look at things more squarely,” said Yoshiki Mine, a former official with the Foreign Ministry in Japan and now head of the Institute for Peaceful Diplomacy, a research group.
A rising China could also put a check on Mr. Trump’s stated ambitions in Asia. “Maybe he will decrease the commitment to Pacific security issues,” said Shin Kawashima, professor of international relations at the University of Tokyo. “But if he carries out such a policy, China will be much more authoritative and aggressive in the Pacific. And then most of the alliance countries and security experts in Washington will be against Trump’s policies. It is a little difficult for Trump to just change all the old policies.”
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe tried to calm the country, as the yen surged and stocks stumbled. “Hand in hand with Trump, we will try to work together,” he said.
Mr. Abe’s administration has embraced the security alliance with the United States while slowly building up its own military capabilities and strengthening ties with Russia. Mr. Trump’s talk of disengaging from the region could embolden Mr. Abe’s efforts to develop a more independent foreign policy.
— MOTOKO RICH and HISAKO UENO
South Korea Warns the North Not to ‘Misjudge’
Jeong Joon-hee, a government spokesman in South Korea, said on Wednesday his country remained unshakable in its belief that it should maintain a strong military alliance with the United States, no matter who became president.
“North Korea should not misjudge the solidity of our alliance with the United States and our joint ability to respond” to provocations, Mr. Jeong said.
South Korea, he said, remained vigilant in case North Korea should attempt a provocation to raise tensions on the Korean Peninsula while Washington was absorbed in its domestic political drama.
President Park Geun-hye’s government remains mired in a political scandal at home that has led to calls for her to step down.
Moon Jae-in, an opposition leader and a contender for the presidency in next year’s election, reconfirmed his commitment to the alliance with the United States “no matter who becomes president there.”
Mr. Trump unsettled South Koreans when he said that he might withdraw American troops there unless Seoul paid more for their presence. He also indicated that he might let Japan and South Korea protect themselves with nuclear weapons, and that he might negotiate directly with the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un.
Mr. Trump’s surprisingly strong performance caught analysts off guard, but it was welcome news for those in South Korea who believe that their country must build its own nuclear weapons to defend against North Korea.
Mr. Trump’s election would “open the way for South Korea to go nuclear in an agreement with the United States,” said Cheong Seong-chang, a senior analyst at the Sejong Institute in Seongnam, South Korea.
— CHOE SANG-HUN
China Braces for a Tenser Relationship
Lu Kang, a spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said, “We hope to strive together with the new U.S. administration to advance the continued healthy and stable development of Sino-American relations, to the benefit of the two countries and the world.”
Asked about Chinese-American economic relations, Mr. Lu said that the growth in trade and economic ties had been a boon to both countries. “It certainly has brought benefits to the people of both,” he said. “As for certain specific disputes in Sino-U.S. relations, both countries are important members of the W.T.O. framework, and they already have an existing mature framework and model for handling these problems. I’m confident that China and the United States are two mature powers able to properly handle these problems.”
Pressed on Mr. Trump’s remarks that trade with China had devastated American manufacturing, Mr. Lu said that “over the past few decades, Sino-U.S. trade has benefited the people on both sides, including the American people, and has increased employment, rather than the opposite.”
The prospects of a Trump victory had been greeted with ambivalence in China, which has grown more assertive at home and abroad during the presidency of Xi Jinping. Chinese officials had worried about the unpredictability of a Trump administration, and they were expecting a more hawkish United States policy toward Beijing on issues like the South China Sea if Mrs. Clinton was elected.
Su Hao, a professor of international relations at the China Foreign Affairs University in Beijing, said that the Chinese government was probably ready for a Trump presidency. “There could be less conflicts between United States and China,” he said. Mrs. Clinton backed President Obama’s “pivot” toward Asia, while Mr. Trump criticized it. Beijing sees the pivot strategy as an attempt to contain China’s rising power.
But Professor Su also said that “a decline of China-U.S. relations is inevitable” under a Trump presidency, predicting: “More frictions on trade would arise during his administration,” Professor Su he said. “But in general, the Republicans have proved they are capable of maintaining a stable relationship with China. We expect the tie could stay on track.”
— YUFAN HUANG
Malaysian Leader Lauds Trump’s Upset Victory
Prime Minister Najib Razak was one of the first leaders to offer effusive praise for Mr. Trump.
“The world has watched this year’s presidential election with fascination,” he said in a statement. “At almost every turn, media commentators have been proven wrong and the results anticipated by experts have been overturned. Donald Trump was considered a distant outsider when his candidacy was first announced. He beat the establishment consensus by winning the Republican nomination, and did so again with his remarkable victory today. Mr. Trump’s success shows that politicians should never take voters for granted.”
A Surprise for India, World’s Largest Democracy
“There is a great deal of uncertainty injected into America’s position in the world,” said Dhruva Jaishankar, a fellow at the Brookings Institution India Center.
For India, which has become accustomed to the United States’ assertion of power in the Asia-Pacific region, a central question is whether Washington will reduce its military presence.
“If that is called into question, India will no longer be able to rely on the U.S. to be there as a security provider,” he said. The result could be a more assertive China, Korea, and Japan, he added.
“There are many variables at play,” he said. “It could be a lose-lose for everybody.”
He added, however, that there were many unknowns in a Trump presidency, even for seasoned observers of Washington. Ordinarily, “for both Republicans and Democrats, we have some sense of who are the people around him, who would be in the running for secretary of state and treasury,” Mr. Jaishankar said. “With Trump, we have no idea.”
Mr. Trump’s victory might also have an impact on the about 1.5 million Indians living in the United States, who could feel the effect of anti-immigration and xenophobic sentiment, he said.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who formed a notably warm relationship with President Obama, is a pragmatic leader who will have little difficulty connecting with Mr. Trump, Mr. Jaishankar said.
In a panel discussion broadcast on the NDTV news channel, Leela Ponappa, a former deputy national security adviser, spoke about the uncertainty across Asia. “Trump is going to add to those uncertainties,” she said. “What happens to the Japanese alliance? What happens to the Korean alliance?”
— ELLEN BARRY AND NIDA NAJAR
Iran Vows to Maintain Nuclear Agreement
The head of Iran’s atomic energy program told the semiofficial Tasnim news agency on Wednesday that the country would “try to continue to implement the nuclear agreement,” regardless of the presidential outcome.
Mr. Trump has called the January agreement between Iran and world powers “the worst deal ever,” and he has vowed to unilaterally abandon it.
Under the agreement, Iran has given up large chunks of its nuclear program in exchange for some sanctions relief.
Tehran’s stock exchange went into a free fall on Wednesday, losing 1,300 points in one hour.
Iran’s leaders have been expressing pleasure over the political upheaval in the United States, deliberately showing the debates to illustrate “the crisis America is in,” Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said last week.
One analyst, Farshad Ghorbanpour, who is close to the government of the Iranian president, Hassan Rouhani, said he feared that the election of Mr. Trump would have huge implications for Mr. Rouhani, who has been promoting better relations with the United States.
“Our hard-liners will pressure him, they are very happy now,” he said.
Iranian state television, always slow to come through with official reactions, hosted several experts who often express the viewpoints of the country’s leaders.
They said the election of Mr. Trump was the result of an “awakening,” Iran’s ideological label for some of the Arab Spring revolts.
Foad Izadi, a professor of international relations at Tehran University, said the awakening had started with the Occupy Wall Street protests and had now spread out across the country. “Trump is riding a wave of Americans longing for change,” he said.
— THOMAS ERDBRINK
Israel Follows the Race in Real Time
Israeli television covered the results through the night as if it were a local election — and in some ways it was, given that the United States is Israel’s prime backer and most important ally.
Israeli leaders asserted in recent days that the Israeli-American relationship was strong and deep enough to transcend political vagaries, and the government has studiously avoided taking sides. At the same time, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu noted this week that Israel was tightening its bilateral relations with Russia and India, and is in talks to develop its economic ties with China.
By morning, as a Trump victory seemed assured, Tzachi Hanegbi, a minister from Mr. Netanyahu’s conservative Likud party, said on Israel’s Channel 2 television that whereas a Clinton win would have represented more of the same, there were people around Mr. Trump whose instincts were perhaps more “relevant to Israeli interests.”
Ron Prosor, a former Israeli ambassador to the United Nations, said a Trump victory spelled “the end of political correctness” — long viewed by Israel as a diplomatic bugbear in its dealings with the world over the Palestinian issue. Mr. Prosor also seemed satisfied that there would be “no free lunches” for Iran under a Trump presidency, and that Iran would be called to account for any violations of the nuclear accord that the Israeli government so vehemently opposed.
— ISABEL KERSHNER
In Europe, the Far Right Rejoices
Two far-right, anti-immigrant nationalist leaders, Geert Wilders in the Netherlands and Marine Le Pen in France, cheered Mr. Trump’s victory.
“The Americans are taking their country back,” Mr. Wilders, a lawmaker who leads the Party for Freedom and who faces hate-speech charges, wrote on Twitter.
NY TIMES
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