Are 95% of new workers in UK really foreigners?

The startling claim on the Times front page is misleading, because it counts people born abroad rather than non-UK citizens

The front-page headline on Thursday’s Times says “95% of new workers are foreigners”. Is that right?

The story, which reports on the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures on the labour market, says: “Employment levels in Britain are at an all-time high, fuelled by the biggest surge of foreign-born workers since the expansion of the European Union.

“The number of people in work increased by 454,000 between July and September last year and the same period this year. Workers born overseas made up nearly 95% of the increase – just over 430,000.” 

The clear implication is that hardly any of the new jobs have gone to British workers.

What do the ONS figures say? As part of its quarterly labour market statistics, the ONS publishes a breakdown of employment by nationality and country of birth.

The figures for country of birth do indeed seem to show a surge in foreign-born workers newly employed in Britain.

Looking at the estimates by country of birth, between July to September 2015 and July to September 2016:

• UK-born people working in the UK increased by 36,000 to 26.32 million.

• non-UK-born people working in the UK increased by 430,000 to 5.55 million.

But the ONS also adds: “For July to September 2016, there were 5.55 million people born abroad working in the UK, but the number of non-UK nationals working in the UK was much lower at 3.49 million. This is because the estimates for people born abroad working in the UK include many UK nationals.”

The ONS figures for employment by nationality paint a very different picture:

Looking at the estimates by nationality, between July to September 2015 and July to September 2016:

• UK nationals working in the UK increased by 213,000 to 28.39 million.

• Non-UK nationals working in the UK increased by 241,000 to 3.49 million.

This shows that foreign citizens in work in Britain account for 53% of the overall increase, rather than the 95% the Times claims. Within this figure there has been a surge of eastern Europeans working in Britain, perhaps because they fear the door will be closed on unskilled labour, while numbers of western Europeans such as French and Germans have dipped, perhaps because they are worried about their future status in Britain.

____________

Times